France's Eurasian power play
Our top story from the January 2024 edition of The Steppe
France's Eurasian power play: A key trend for 2024
In late 2023, France began stepping up as a major emerging economic power in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, setting out its stall as a trade partner in what Russia has historically seen as its own sphere of influence. Alongside major European counterparts like Germany, France has been actively deepening ties in Eurasia. This regional shift is poised to profoundly impact global markets and shape developments in the region throughout 2024.
Emmanuel Macron wrapped up a charm offensive in early November that took the French President to capitals across Eurasia, sealing a lucrative new arms deal with Armenia and making strategic bids in the energy sector in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan. With the region sitting on a host of untapped fossil fuels and critical raw material used in everything from electric vehicles to solar panels, Paris is hoping the move will shore up its energy security as Europe races to end its reliance on Moscow.
A key challenge for Macron is ensuring access to uranium reserves. With 70% of France's electricity sourced from nuclear power, strengthening ties in the region, especially with major uranium suppliers like Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan, offers up the prospect of a consistent uranium supply for French reactors. Macron also inked a 1.6 billion euro deal with Mongolia, unlocking uranium mining opportunities and positioning the French multinational Orano’s project in Mongolia to potentially account for 4% of global uranium production in the future.
The groundbreaking steps come amid growing challenges with key EU uranium suppliers, including a military junta seizing power in Niger, a nation providing 15% of France's uranium, and uncertainties surrounding Russia's uranium imports due to potential nuclear sector sanctions.
The French delegation’s whirlwind tour was also aimed at securing a stable supply of critical minerals. While in Ulaanbaatar, Macron struck a deal with Mongolia for lithium exploration. Though in a preliminary phase, it’s clear that the move empowers French enterprises to capitalize on the country’s mining resources and gives France a competitive advantage in global technological development.Â
These maneuvers show France’s big ambitions to balance regional power dynamics in Eurasia. Gaidz Minassian, French political scientist and international relations lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, highlighted the scale of the change, telling Montfort,
France is stepping up its efforts and investments in the Russian periphery and Asia to strengthen the interests of the European Union and show that it remains a major player. And this investment is not just economic, cultural or humanitarian; it is strategic, military and political in this world in transition.
France’s foray will have significant implications for the region. As well as paving the way for more foreign direct investment, a closer relationship with European capitals will press Eurasian states to clean up their act on corruption and incentivize them to ensure investors have faith in the rule of law. Likewise, developing sectors like mining and energy offers a starting point for other industries to emerge further up the value chain — Kazakh electric vehicles? Mongolian battery factories? It’s all up for grabs in 2024.