The Steppe #19: Dior, Lenin, and Thousands of Glaciers
Montfort Eurasia's newsletter covering Central Asia and the Caucasus
Hello, and welcome back to The Steppe, your newsletter bringing you the latest business- and investor-relevant happenings in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, brought to you by Montfort Eurasia.
In this edition, we look at these key developments:
Mongolia’s PM Ousted
Kazakhstan Writing the AI Rules
Kyrgyzstan Lays Lenin to Rest
Uzbekistan’s Net Gains
Tajikistan's Ice Running Out
Please don’t hesitate to contact us for feedback and tips at eurasia@montfort.london
Dior, Discontent, and a Downfall: Mongolia’s Moment of Reckoning
Consolidating investor concerns over political stability, Mongolia’s Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai resigned on June 3 after a parliamentary vote of no confidence, which began with viral images of his son’s extravagant lifestyle. The scandal struck a nerve in a country where frustration over inequality runs deep. The vote, which was announced by Mongolian media and confirmed by the Mongolian Embassy in Washington D.C., showed Oyun-Erdene fall short with only 44 votes in his support - well below the minimum of 64 required of the 126-seat parliament.
Protests broke out after photos appeared on social media showing Oyun-Erdene’s son and his girlfriend flaunting luxury items, including a Dior backpack while on a holiday abroad. Oyun-Erdene, who served as Mongolia’s prime minister for four years, rejected allegations of corruption, calling the backlash against him a smear campaign.
Despite Oyun-Erdene’s rebuffs, Mongolia’s anti-corruption agency was already investigating his family’s finances. Anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International ranks Mongolia 114 out of 180 for government transparency and cites a decline during Oyun-Erdene time as prime minister.
This comes as Montfort’s recent Investor Perception report, published in June, underlined ongoing concerns over political stability and geopolitical tensions – with 65% of investors citing it as concern - despite interest in the region as an investment destination tripling.
Dolgion Aldar, expert on social development and a former Director of the Independent Research Institute of Mongolia, says that this recent wave of youth-driven protests is just the latest iteration of discontent around wealth inequality in a country with substantial mineral resources.
“Smaller but consistent demonstrations have taken place regularly, often led by young people demanding transparency, justice, and reform. However, under Oyun-Erdene, participants of these peaceful gatherings often faced intimidation and police harassment.”
She notes that while Mongolia’s mining sector has contributed massively to the country’s GDP and exports, its benefits have not translated into broad-based development:
“Many citizens see mining as a symbol of corruption and environmental harm, and the enrichment for a small circle of political and economic elite. The viral scandal involving the Prime Minister’s son gifting luxury gifts to his fiancée, became a symbol of elite impunity and injustice for younger Mongolians.”
Mongolia has been lurchingly navigating a democratic transition since the early 1990s, but corruption remains entrenched. Former Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold was, for example, accused by U.S. prosecutors of purchasing New York real estate with mining funds embezzled from Mongolia.
Oyun-Erdene warned that his resignation could destabilize Mongolia’s fragile democracy and potentially erode public trust in the parliamentary system and admitted to over prioritising major infrastructure projects and not giving enough attention to addressing social and political challenges.
The incoming government now inherits a moment of reckoning: to make genuine efforts to combat corruption and address economic inequality or risk losing the younger generation’s confidence in the country’s institutions. As Aldar argues, the next government needs to balance resource development with social equity through enacting a socially inclusive development strategy. She says it can do this through
“introducing a progressive wealth tax, ensuring budgets are participatory and equitable, strengthening the social protection system, and improving governance and transparency.”
Kazakhstan Gets Smart on AI
Just a few weeks ago, Kazakhstan became the region’s first to begin regulating its digital future, with its parliament adopting a draft law on generative AI governance. The draft law, drawing inspiration from the EU’s AI Act but tailored to national priorities, is designed to safeguard the public interest and foster digital trust.
Co-designed with input from lawmakers, tech experts, and industry, the law aims for cross-sector AI regulation AI across diverse sectors. It aims to prohibit unauthorized data use and proposes penalties for AI misuse, trying to strike a careful balance of innovation with public safety.
As head of the Center for Public Legislation and Public Administration at the Institute of Parliamentarism Shoplan Saimova told Euractiv, “Kazakhstan is not pursuing a reckless race for progress, but is instead building a responsible system centered on human rights and social well being.” The law also calls for retraining IT professionals in AI design and ethics, building on Kazakhstan’s prior crypto regulations as AI and blockchain converge.
Igor Rogov, chair of Kazakhstan’s human rights commission and the president of the Kazakhstan Criminological Association, cited the top three dangers of not regulating AI for the Astana Times. The first is liability, and in particular, who should be held responsible for harm caused by AI: the person who used the AI, the company that developed the AI, or the programmers that wrote the code. The second is intellectual property rights - specifically, who owns the outputs generated by AI. The third is fraud and criminal use of AI, especially with regards to mimicking voice and visual appearance for the purpose of fraud or deception.
A 2025 study by Kazakh scholars compares the draft to the EU’s AI Act, praising its risk-based approach - which bans autonomous AI and mandates transparency—while noting several gaps. These include the need for clearer classifications of risk––in particular to define the different domains of life that AI impacts, stronger algorithmic transparency, better data protection, and more enforcement mechanisms. The authors recommend further localising EU standards, investing in greater regulatory capacity, and phasing in requirements to avoid stifling innovation, especially given Kazakhstan’s comparatively smaller market.
Kazakhstan’s multilingual context poses some unique challenges, which make public education and technical infrastructure for accountability necessary.
Moscow Raises Stalin but Kyrgyzstan Brings Lenin Down
In Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second city in the south, a 23-meter (75-foot) statue of Vladimir Lenin, Central Asia’s tallest tribute to the Soviet leader, has come down. The monument was erected in 1975 when Kyrgyzstan was a Soviet republic, and brought down on June 14, 2025 by crane, with photos of it lying flat on the ground spreading online. Its removal marks a step in Kyrgyzstan’s evolving identity.
Osh City Hall downplayed the dismantling as routine urban planning to “enhance the city’s aesthetic appeal,” replacing the statue with a flagpole, much like a Lenin monument relocated in Bishkek. Officials shrugged off political motives behind the act, pointing to similar moves in Russian cities. Yet, the timing - just two weeks after Russia unveiled a statue of Joseph Stalin in Moscow - reveals significantly divergent views on the Soviet legacy.
Kyrgyzstan, a country of 7 million, has been forging a contemporary identity since independence in 1991. Soviet-era monuments have been removed across former Soviet states – a process that has only accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the country’s economy is booming, with GDP growing 12.3% from January to May 2025, up from 11.7% in January–April and a leap from 8.1% in 2024, driven by construction and trade. The growth suggests strong momentum in Kyrgyzstan’s economy - even as the country maintains economic ties with Russia, which accounts for 30% of its exports.
Uzbekistan Kicks Into High Gear
Uzbekistan isn’t just making history on the football pitch - becoming the first Central Asian nation to qualify for the 2026 World Cup after seven attempts since 1991. It’s also scoring big economically. Last year, foreign direct investment (FDI) jumped 60% to reach $34.9 billion, per the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade (MIIT), with projections it could hit $42 billion this year. The government’s ambitious "Uzbekistan 2030" strategy, which has been changing the economic landscape through sweeping market-oriented reforms, is behind much of this growth.
Fortune, it seems, favours not just the bold, but the strategic planners. The plan has been supporting an economic network with thousands of enterprises in specialized economic zones, industrial hubs, and innovation parks spanning the country. Uzbekistan is aiming towards more than 25% renewable energy by 2025 and is pouring money into advanced technology - like a $3 billion AI data center - and investing $2.6 billion in mining critical minerals. The financial sector is growing too, with the country raising $12 billion through sovereign bonds since 2019, including $2.84 billion just this year on the London Stock Exchange.
Uzbekistan’s young population, 40% of its population under 25, is a key part of this economic strength, with e-commerce being a key area of growth, projected to reach 9–11% of all retail sales by 2027. This demographic edge, which puts Uzbekistan among the top 30–40% of nations globally for youth population, lays the groundwork for sustained economic resilience.
The Tashkent International Investment Forum (June 9–12, 2025) put these achievements on display for 3,000 participants from 95 countries, with high level panels on the progress of the privatisation process, the growing startup ecosystem and developments in critical minerals extraction. Montfort Eurasia Director John Mann moderated a critical minerals panel on Uzbekistan’s transition towards a more investor-friendly regulatory environment with First Deputy Minister at the Ministry of Mining Industry and Geology, Omonullo Nasritdinkhodjaev, as a guest.
Uzbekistan’s track record and forecasts––its GDP is projected to grow 5.9% in 2025––make it both a serious regional economic player and contender for investment.
Tajikistan: Breaking the Ice on Climate Change
In Dushanbe, Tajikistan, over 1,000 global leaders, scientists, and climate experts gathered from May 29 to June 1, 2025, for the UN-backed High-Level International Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation. With Central Asia’s largest glaciers vanishing fast, Tajikistan is pushing to save these vital water sources, launching the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and issuing the Dushanbe Glaciers Declaration for urgent action.
Tajikistan has the highest number of glaciers in Central Asia, with 6% to 8% of its territory covered by them. Ice in the larger glaciers like the Vanch Yakh, the longest continental glacier in the world, feeds rivers like the Amu Darya without which agriculture and hydropower would not be possible for millions of people across the region. The data, however, is worrying: More than 30% of Tajikistan’s glaciers have melted in the past century. The Vanch Yakh has retreated more than 1 km, losing 44 km² of ice. This melt, fueled by climate change, is considered irreversible by scientists, and threatens water, food, and energy security.
The Dushanbe summit, championed by President Emomali Rahmon, was a wake-up call. After visiting Vanch Yakh, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed called glacier loss a “global catastrophe”. Recent data shows the worst glacier mass loss in 2022–2024, with seven of the ten most negative years since 2016. Without action, many glaciers may vanish by 2100, hitting arid regions like Central Asia hardest.
Tajikistan’s advocacy isn’t new. It secured 2025 as the UN’s International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and co-leads the UN Decade of Cryospheric Sciences (2025–2034). The summit, backed by UNESCO and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), united delegates from 80 countries. A key outcome was a €3.5 billion ADB and Green Climate Fund program for nine nations, including Tajikistan, to boost irrigation and monitor glacier risks. The Dushanbe Declaration demands research, emissions cuts, and early warning systems, feeding into COP30 in Brazil.
Stat of the Month
It’s been exactly one year since Kazakhstan criminalized domestic violence (June 2024). Since then, reported cases have dropped by 28% - from 55,000 to 40,000 in just six months, per the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In this time, over 28,500 offenders faced administrative action, 7,700 were arrested, and courts handed down more than 27,000 protective orders. Notably, domestic homicides notably fell by 6.4%, with numbers of women victims falling by 20.8% and child victims by 28.6%.
Despite this progress, only 8% of women experiencing violence report it, and 51% never tell anyone - a product of fear, stigma, and lack of institutional support, experts say.
What We’re Reading
The Armenian Refugee Who Photographed a Defining Era of European Migration, Sofia Bergman, EVN Report